I hope you are well — congrats on the little one and the new home.

I want add a thought on paper usage. First, I think changes in screen real estate will drive more changes. Since I moved to 3 monitors, I print less. Two of the monitors are 19 in and so I’ve got a good sized desktop. I used to print documents related to design and sit them on my physical desk. Then I’d refer back and forth from the desk to a screen. For example, when writing an email, I might need to refer to something on another screen and rather than all that clicking about, I would print (although the guilt was always there making me hesitate). I’m not sure about your neck of the woods where things tend to happen sooner, but screen real estate among my co-workers is still often a laptop screen. There is solid research on the increased productivity of multiple monitors and I think we’ll see people expanding their real estate over time.

A

When forecasting the future, you can be certain of a few things. One of them is, that we are almost always wrong.

The behaviour of how we use paper has changed quite a bit. Instead of typing up a document in a mechanical device, usually in black and white, we are now printing full colour brochures right of the scanner/printer/copier in the office. The speed with which we can print a high quality coulour print has gone up from several minutes to a few seconds, with the result of more cartridges being used and more paper being used. As you say, you use more paper. Differently, but more.

This is not confined to paper. Within products and services, somehow, ususally the opposite of what you think will happen will actually happen.

Take LED lightning devices, for example. Designed to use less power and last for longer (and despite their current inability to produce white light), the result is that every possible surface is being covered with light emitting diodes. In this regard, it is like an opposite Less is More.
Another interesting result of that is that our bodies and face will be lit from other angles than what we are used to, for example from below, since the desk surface (as well as the walls) will be covered in diodes. Imagine a kid holding a flashlight to his chin. This will change the way that makeup companies (another multibillion dollar industry) will develop make up, as this drastically alters the perception of beauty.

Before I wander off too long – what is intersting about your blog entry is the notion that you realized something else happened – actually none of you had it right, and the Economist don’t either. Somewhere in the semantic network of innovation, the idea of the paperless office took a turnand changed the products in our offices.

Sometimes dubbed The Bladerunner Effect, it is by definition very difficult to forecast the future. Actually, over the last year I have noticed how your company move closer to an actual product development mindset (which I applaud), this can be a tremendous advantage. If you are able to synthesize this inverted space wherin things change, you are in a very good spot indeed.

Congrats with Jules,

Cheers,
Frederik Andersen

I just want to be sure that I undestand your position on this post. You’re calling into question Malcolm Gladwell’s theory from 6 years ago, and seemingly precient as we are still “killing a lot of trees” these days, based on the article you cite from The Economist? I have most issued with the nebulous “older generation.” Who are these folks and what is are their characteristics? According to the Pew American Life study, age-wise they are far from the majority if you benchmark digital information at or around 1998. I guess that I still do not follow your conceptual breadcrumbs here and concur more with Paul Saffo who, at the end of the Economist article, wisely allows for both paper and digital in the office of the future. The entirely paperless office will remain a myth.